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Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical GuideEliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide

Mary A. Meyer and Jane M. Booker



ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability 7

Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas.

The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon.

Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background. Newcomers will be eased into the topic by special chapters explaining what expert judgment is and how it can be used, an introduction to statistical techniques and notation, definitions for statistical terms, and a separate glossary of expert judgment terms.

People in industry, government, and academia are aware that they must capture their expertise, as well as access and update it in electronic repositories (knowledge systems), if they are to preserve their chief assets and competitive edge. This book provides a shortcut to creating these knowledge systems.

The innovative methodology PREDICT (Performance and Reliability Evaluation from Diverse Information, Combination, and Tracking) is used to predict the performance of a complex system undergoing change. This book provides PREDICT users with guidance on how to elicit and analyze expert judgment, including the associated uncertainty. Expert judgment is an important source of information when test data is not available.

Audience

This book will be a valuable resource for laypeople in expert judgment who are working in such fields as the physical sciences, statistics, applied mathematics, government, and the military. It will also extend the usual methods of people already experienced in the use of expert judgment, for example, those in risk analysis, reliability analysis, operations research, decision analysis, or knowledge acquisition.

Contents

Preface to ASA-SIAM Edition; Preface; List of Figures; List of Tables; List of Examples; Part I: Introduction to Expert Judgment. Chapter 1: Introduction; Chapter 2: Common Questions and Pitfalls Concerning Expert Judgment; Chapter 3: Background on Human Problem Solving and Bias; Part II: Elicitation Procedures. Chapter 4: Selecting the Question Areas and Questions; Chapter 5: Refining the Questions; Chapter 6: Selecting and Motivating the Experts; Chapter 7: Selecting the Components of Elicitation; Chapter 8: Designing and Tailoring the Elicitation; Chapter 9: Practicing the Elicitation and Training the Project Personnel; Chapter 10: Conducting the Elicitation; Part III: Analysis Procedures. Chapter 11: Introducing the Techniques for Analysis of Expert Judgment Data; Chapter 12: Initial Look at the Data_The First Analyses; Chapter 13: Understanding the Data Base Structure; Chapter 14: Correlation and Bias Detection; Chapter 15: Model Formation; Chapter 16: Combining Responses_Aggregation; Chapter 17: Characterizing Uncertainties; Chapter 18: Making Inferences; Appendix A: SAATY; Appendix B: MCBETA; Appendix C: EMPIRICAL; Appendix D: BOOT; Glossary of Expert Judgment Terms; References; Index.

2001 / xxxii + 459 pages / Softcover / ISBN-13: 978-0-898714-74-6 / ISBN-10: 0-89871-474-5 /
List Price $116.50 / ASA/SIAM Member Price $81.55 / Order Code SA07
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